Nýjasta bréfið frá Niels C. Jensen hjá ARP - mars 2011
. . . In reality, though, the Irish have a stronger hand than generally perceived. With their banks sinking faster than other European investors can offload their exposure to Ireland, what would Ireland actually lose from calling the EU’s bluff and let bondholders take a haircut? Perhaps even walk away from the euro and go back to the punt? Usually, one of the strongest arguments against leaving a currency union is the inevitable run on the banks. But if the bank run is already in full bloom, that argument loses much of its power . . .
. . . After all, the EU’s main concern is not Ireland. No, what the EU is desperate to maintain is the illusion that the EU’s banking sector in general, and Germany’s in particular, is sound and healthy. In reality, the German landesbanks, together with the Spanish cajas and the Austrian banks, are amongst the weakest in Europe in terms of their capital base, and the German banks have plenty of exposure to Ireland . . .
