Öldrunarhagkerfi
Mynd 1; úr árbókinni: þýski aldurspíramídinn er smám saman að snúast á hvolf og er svo étinn upp innanfrá af mannfjölda sem er af erlendu bergi brotinn. Framtíðarspá hagstofunnar gerir ráð fyrir að aðeins 60-65 milljón manns búi í Þýskalandi árið 2060.
Mynd 2; úr mannfjöldaspálíkani þýsku hagstofunnar. Forsenda: frjósemi 1,2 lifandi fætt barn á hverja konu fram til 2060 (fertility rate). Fólksfækkun: 18 milljón manns frá 2005 til 2060.
Graf 3; Sögulegt frjósemi þýskra og japanskra kvenna (fertility rate) frá 1960 til 2008. Fjöldi lifandi fæddra barna á æfi hverrar konu.
The Low fertility trap
Þekkið þið þessi einkenni?
eftir Edward Hugh
- Ongoing weaknesses in domestic consumer demand
- absence of housing booms (since 1995 in the European cases)
- Comparatively high rates of personal saving, which then begin to decline
- Increasing structural dependence on exports for growth
- Lack of attractiveness as a destination for migrants
- An increasingly flat wages curve (across time) despite demographically driven labour market tightening
- Growing government deficit issues and dilemma's about how to fund
- health and pension systems, with a tendency to try and load the cost onto the tax system rather than reducing provision. Lesa áfram
Skilgreining: PDF og glærur
Skrif Edwards Hugh
How low can fertility fall?
- The possible ‘low fertility trap’ hypothesis
- Observation that countries that fell below fertility level of 1.5 children have not recovered.
- Negative demographic momentum: Because of past low fertility there will be fewer potential mothers in the future.
- Economics: Gap between aspirations for consumption and expected income widens for young people due to negative consequences of ageing (cuts in social security systems, possible economic stagnation)
- Ideational change: Young people are socialized in an environment with few children and this may result in lower ideal family size in next generation.
